Post Written by Vasily Alekseenko

Startups don’t fail because of bad ideas—they fail because of bad timing. Timing can be the silent killer of even the most innovative ventures.

Take 3D printing as an example. The technology has been around for decades, but it wasn’t until advances in materials science, microelectronics, and sensors caught up that it became viable. By the time the patents expired, the market was finally ready—but it took over 25 years.

The lesson? Even the best ideas won’t succeed if the world isn’t ready for them.

The Two Timing Traps

1. Being Too Early

Innovators often find themselves ahead of their time, burning through cash and resources while waiting for the market to catch up. Prodigy, an early online service in the ’80s, tried to pioneer e-commerce before browsers and consumer habits made it feasible. They spent over a billion dollars and failed—what Amazon would later achieve seemed impossible back then.

2. Being Too Late

The opposite is just as dangerous. Once the market is crowded, even a great product struggles to stand out. Entering late means competing on price or features, which often isn’t sustainable.

How to Get Timing Right

So, how do you avoid the timing trap? Here are three strategies:

1. Track External Forces

Market readiness isn’t just about your product—it’s about external factors like technology, regulation, and consumer behavior. Ask yourself: what’s enabling this idea to work now that wasn’t possible five years ago?

2. Start Small, Scale Fast

If you suspect the market isn’t fully ready, test your idea on a smaller scale. Focus on niche markets or early adopters who are hungry for innovation. This lets you refine your product while the market matures.

3. Ride the Wave

Timing isn’t about luck; it’s about recognizing the wave before it crests. Look for signals like regulatory shifts, competitor behavior, or growing consumer pain points. NVIDIA, for example, spent decades on graphics processing units before the AI boom turned GPUs into gold.

The Risk of Fusion Thinking

One fascinating concept is the “Fusion Problem.” Fusion energy research has been ongoing for decades, but it’s an all-or-nothing venture—it doesn’t work unless everything works.

For startups, this translates to ventures that depend on too many moving parts to align. If your product requires an entire ecosystem to change for it to succeed, you’re taking on significant risk.

Final Thought

Great startups don’t just solve problems—they solve problems when the world needs them solved. Timing is a mix of insight, preparation, and adaptability. As a founder, your job is to recognize the right moment to strike—and to be ready when it arrives.

This post is based on insights from the MIT course “Nuts and Bolts of New Ventures.” You can watch the full session here for even more lessons.

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